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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your franchise in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly honoring superior leadership or merely the biggest upset.

But the latest field is fundamentally different. The group of nominees is unusually strong. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners fading and longtime strugglers improving in unison. In an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this turbulent and thrilling season, he's facing several other elite coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. This is a tradition. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his rare ability. Since Week 9, the Bears sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the scheme rather than freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a heavy dose of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when easy reads weren't there, he's been capable to spin big plays from broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical season, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be several wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term winning. But he falls just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also overseen the overhaul of a defense that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his early public introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and experience, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is learning a new job on the fly. But Coen has pulled everyone and all elements together.

After an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. Coen didn't. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest knock in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed after that time, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the schedule, placing him just one spot ahead of other QBs.

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